Too close to call
This is not the outcome I was expecting. We won’t know the final result for some time, but the events of last night are quite the upset. After a broadly assured performance, having seen off some strong early competition, and after an impressive technical, Lottie’s eviction from the Bake Off tent was nothing short of devastating. Such is the drama of reality television.
The US Presidential election is fast becoming a reality TV drama of its own. As things stand, at 8:15am in Cambridge (that’s 3:15am Eastern Standard Time) things are unclear. Currently, the Associated Press have Biden on 238 Electoral College votes, and Trump not far behind on 213.
The real shock of the night is that Trump’s support was pretty solid. Twenty-four hours ago, everything pointed to a Biden victory. Trump’s chaotic response to COVID and America’s current economic crisis appeared to be reflected in a consistent poll lead for the former Vice President, and the highest voter turnout in a generation. What is more, concerns over the President’s competence and his moral character appeared to erode Trump’s support among white evangelicals and white women in the ‘burbs, two groups central to his victory in 2016. Admittedly, Biden is no world beater. But like President Warren G. Harding before him, he could claim to be the ‘best of the second-raters’, a candidate whose appeal was rooted in his promise to return America to some kind of normalcy.
As things stand, the outcome of the election is unclear. In some ways, the electoral map looks much like 2016. In fact, with Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania still to declare, it looks like the Democrats only significant gains are Arizona and Nevada, nowhere near enough to put Biden in the White House.
An indecisive result is perhaps the worst result of all. Had Biden already won by a convincing margin, senior Republicans would, in all likelihood, have acknowledged his victory and encouraged Trump to concede. In that scenario, Biden’s victory would have had a degree of legitimacy, and we could have expected a peaceful transition of power. Equally, had Trump won with a clear margin Biden would have conceded. However, with the result too close to call, Trump has declared the election fraudulent, and announced that he’s taking the issue to the Supreme Court.
While there is no way of knowing what the outcome of this election will be, a number of surprising trends have emerged during the campaign. First, despite professions of patriotism, it’s remarkable how little faith many Republicans have in their country. Trump seems to believe that the election was essentially fraudulent. Moreover, many Republican voters believe that if Biden became President, he would tear up the Constitution, revoking the First and Second Amendments. In both cases, there appears to be no faith in the constitutional safeguards which are central to the American political system.
Second, while Republicans have long been critical of the power of the Federal Government, in recent years the American right has become critical of local state governments and the power of big corporations. Traditionally, critics of Federal Government have used the language of ‘state rights’, defending local government from what they see as Federal overreach. However, during the pandemic, libertarians have criticised public health measures instituted by State Governors as an attack on individual freedom. More surprising still is the popularity of Trump’s attacks on private corporations. Again, right-wing critics of Federal power have tended to view the market as the guarantor of liberty. Yet, Trump and his followers have repeatedly pointed to the power of private media and tech companies as a threat to personal freedom.
A broader trend, evident from 2016 if not earlier, is Trump’s tendency to treat politics and government as a form of reality TV. Anything could happen in the next few days, but it looks certain that Trump will use the techniques he mastered on The Apprentice to try and claim victory. Whilst Trump’s new excursion into reality TV is likely to be his most dramatic yet, it is bound to heighten political polarisation and deepen scepticism about the American system.
